GESUNDHEIT, MINDSET, UMWELT
Kommentare 326

Nicht das Wetter ist das Schlimmste am Klimawandel, sondern wir Menschen

2020 war ein Jahr der Extreme. Wetterkapriolen rund um den Globus zogen oft eine Spur der Verwüstung hinter sich her. Experten sagten, dass diese Katastrophen sowohl den aktuellen Tribut des Klimawandels hervorheben als auch eine düstere Vorschau auf die Zukunft bieten.

Das öffentliche Gespräch über den Klimawandel ist von der Wissenschaft geprägt, und die Wissenschaft konzentriert sich auf Wetterereignisse, die quantifiziert und vorhergesagt werden können. Es gibt wenig darüber zu sagen, wie sich der Klimawandel auf unsere Politik auswirken wird, weil es nämlich schwer vorhersehbar ist.

Klimamodelle sind sicherlich nicht perfekt. Um eine genaue Projektion zu erstellen, benötigen Wissenschaftler jedoch gute Daten darüber, wie sich das Klima historisch verhalten hat. Sie müssen auch vernünftige Voraussagen darüber treffen, wie viel wir in Zukunft verschmutzen werden und welche Auswirkungen das haben wird. Das ist etwas, das auf den unveränderlichen Gesetzen der Physik beruht. Doch das allein vorherzusagen reicht nicht aus.

Beispiel New York

Modelle können Ihnen zum Beispiel sagen, dass Küstengewässer regelmäßig einen Großteil von Coney Island (Brooklyn) überfluten werden, wenn wir weiterhin fossile Brennstoffe mit der gleichen tödlichen Begeisterung verbrennen. Einerseits mag das für viele ein gewisser Trost sein, da diese Vorhersagen darauf hindeuten, dass der Rest von New York – nämlich die von Überschwemmungen unberührten Teile − unverändert bleiben wird.

Und genau hier kommen die Modelle zu kurz. Sollte nämlich Coney Island tatsächlich regelmäßig überflutet werden, ist es mehr als unwahrscheinlich, dass der Rest von New York gleich bleibt. Es ist leicht vorstellbar, dass die Kosten für die Hochwasserversicherung in die Höhe schnellen und Manager sich in die Vororte zurückziehen werden. Banken und Technologieunternehmen werden in andere Städte umziehen, die besser gegen den Klimawandel isoliert sind. Und diejenigen New Yorker, die bleiben und unter der schwindenden Wirtschaft und steigenden Kriminalität leiden, könnten sich „gezwungen fühlen“ populistische Autoritäten zu unterstützen. Oder vielleicht auch nicht. Die Wissenschaft kann uns nicht sagen, wie diese Geschichte endet.

Und dieses Szenario betrifft natürlich nicht nur New York. Weltweit sind unzählige Küstengebiete von genau denselben Auswirkungen des Klimawandels betroffen.

Wie werden die Menschen auf den Klimawandel reagieren?

Forscher haben einige Anstrengungen unternommen, um vorherzusagen, wie Menschen auf den Klimawandel reagieren werden. Studien haben ergeben, dass Menschen mit zunehmender Erwärmung des Planeten weniger produktiv , dafür aber gewalttätiger werden. Steigende Meere werden die Massenmigration vorantreiben, und sich verschlechternde Dürren werden zu Ernteausfällen, wirtschaftlichen Abschwüngen und bewaffneten Konflikten führen. Einige Untersuchungen haben sogar ergeben, dass der Klimawandel zu mehr Nationalismus und Autoritarismus führen wird.

Die Wissenschaft mag zwar einen Anstieg des Meeresspiegels prognostizieren können, doch kann sie nicht wirklich voraussagen, wo die Risse in unserem sozialen Gefüge auftreten werden, wenn Menschen mit mehr Turbulenzen und Entbehrungen fertig werden müssen.

Was passiert in einer vom Klimawandel bedrohten Welt?

Für eine Studie aus dem Jahr 2014 untersuchten Forscher in Stanford, wie Menschen die Warnschilder auf verschreibungspflichtigen Medikamenten verstehen. Sie fanden heraus, dass Menschen, die eine schwerwiegende Nebenwirkung − ein höheres Krebsrisiko − neben mehreren „kleineren“ Nebenwirkungen wie Schwindel, Asthma, Zittern, Schlaflosigkeit sehen, das Medikament als relativ sicher einstuften. Aber als die Menschen nur das höhere Krebsrisiko und sonst nichts sahen, bewerteten sie das Medikament als riskanter.

Ähnlich mag es uns mit dem „Warnschild“ unseren Klimawandel betreffend gehen.  Die Liste der Nebenwirkungen ist so lang − von Überschwemmungen, Hitzewellen über Waldbrände, Hurrikane, und Dürren bis hin zu Seuchen −, dass ihre Wirkung betäubend sein kann. Möglicherweise wäre es besser, sich auf nur eine Aussage zu einigen, nämlich: „Der Klimawandel macht dich kaputt.“

fastcompany.com

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